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Superforecasting

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Author : Philip Tetlock
Category : Social Science
Publisher : Random House
Published : 2015-09-24
ISBN : 9781448166596
Type : PDF & EPUB
Page : 352
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Reviews book: The international bestseller 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life. _________________________ 'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist 'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent 'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times

Summary Of Superforecasting Review Keypoints And Take Aways

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Author : PenZen Summaries
Category : Study Aids
Publisher : by Mocktime Publication
Published : 2022-11-29
ISBN :
Type : PDF & EPUB
Page : 16
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Reviews book: The summary of Superforecasting – The Art and Science of Prediction presented here include a short review of the book at the start followed by quick overview of main points and a list of important take-aways at the end of the summary. The Summary of The book "Superforecasting," published in 2015, details how to improve the accuracy of your forecasts, whether you're trying to anticipate shifts in the stock market, politics, or your day-to-day life. The book's findings are based on decades of research and the outcomes of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. Superforecasting summary includes the key points and important takeaways from the book Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner. Disclaimer: 1. This summary is meant to preview and not to substitute the original book. 2. We recommend, for in-depth study purchase the excellent original book. 3. In this summary key points are rewritten and recreated and no part/text is directly taken or copied from original book. 4. If original author/publisher wants us to remove this summary, please contact us at support@mocktime.com.

Probability Choice And Reason

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Author : Leighton Vaughan Williams
Category : Mathematics
Publisher : CRC Press
Published : 2021-09-15
ISBN : 9781000458879
Type : PDF & EPUB
Page : 310
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Reviews book: Much of our thinking is flawed because it is based on faulty intuition. By using the framework and tools of probability and statistics, we can overcome this to provide solutions to many real-world problems and paradoxes. We show how to do this, and find answers that are frequently very contrary to what we might expect. Along the way, we venture into diverse realms and thought experiments which challenge the way that we see the world. Features: An insightful and engaging discussion of some of the key ideas of probabilistic and statistical thinking Many classic and novel problems, paradoxes, and puzzles An exploration of some of the big questions involving the use of choice and reason in an uncertain world The application of probability, statistics, and Bayesian methods to a wide range of subjects, including economics, finance, law, and medicine Exercises, references, and links for those wishing to cross-reference or to probe further Solutions to exercises at the end of the book This book should serve as an invaluable and fascinating resource for university, college, and high school students who wish to extend their reading, as well as for teachers and lecturers who want to liven up their courses while retaining academic rigour. It will also appeal to anyone who wishes to develop skills with numbers or has an interest in the many statistical and other paradoxes that permeate our lives. Indeed, anyone studying the sciences, social sciences, or humanities on a formal or informal basis will enjoy and benefit from this book.

The Open Society And Its Complexities

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Author : Gerald Gaus
Category : Philosophy
Publisher : Oxford University Press
Published : 2021-08-06
ISBN : 9780190648992
Type : PDF & EPUB
Page : 288
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Reviews book: A mere two decades ago it was widely assumed that liberal democracy and the Open Society it created had decisively won their century-long struggle against authoritarianism. Although subsequent events have shocked many, F.A. Hayek would not have been surprised that we are in many ways disoriented by the society we have created. As he understood it, the Open Society was a precarious achievement in many ways at odds with our deepest moral sentiments. His path-breaking analyses argued that the Open Society runs against our evolved attraction to "tribalism" that the Open Society is too complex for moral justification; and that its self-organized complexity defies attempts at democratic governance. In his final, wide-ranging book, Gerald Gaus critically reexamines Hayek's analyses. Drawing on diverse work in social and moral science, Gaus argues that Hayek's program was manifestly prescient and strikingly sophisticated, always identifying real and pressing problems. Yet, Gaus maintains, Hayek underestimated the resources of human morality and the Open Society to cope with the challenges he perceived. Gaus marshals formal models and empirical evidence to show that our Open Society is grounded on moral foundations of human cooperation originating in our distant evolutionary past, but has built upon them a complex and diverse society that requires us to rethink both the nature of moral justification and the meaning of democratic self-governance. In these fearful, angry and inwardly-looking times, when political philosophy has itself become a hostile exchange between ideological camps, The Open Society and Its Complexities shows how moral and ideological diversity, so far from being the enemy of a free and open society, can be its foundation.

Law War And The Penumbra Of Uncertainty

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Author : Sam Selvadurai
Category : Law
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Published : 2022-04-07
ISBN : 9781316511985
Type : PDF & EPUB
Page : 375
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Reviews book: An exploration into how uncertainty and political and ethical biases affect international law governing the use of force.

Cybersecurity First Principles A Reboot Of Strategy And Tactics

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Author : Rick Howard
Category : Computers
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Published : 2023-04-19
ISBN : 9781394173099
Type : PDF & EPUB
Page : 295
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Reviews book: The first expert discussion of the foundations of cybersecurity In Cybersecurity First Principles, Rick Howard, the Chief Security Officer, Chief Analyst, and Senior fellow at The Cyberwire, challenges the conventional wisdom of current cybersecurity best practices, strategy, and tactics and makes the case that the profession needs to get back to first principles. The author convincingly lays out the arguments for the absolute cybersecurity first principle and then discusses the strategies and tactics required to achieve it. In the book, you'll explore: Infosec history from the 1960s until the early 2020s and why it has largely failed What the infosec community should be trying to achieve instead The arguments for the absolute and atomic cybersecurity first principle The strategies and tactics to adopt that will have the greatest impact in pursuing the ultimate first principle Case studies through a first principle lens of the 2015 OPM hack, the 2016 DNC Hack, the 2019 Colonial Pipeline hack, and the Netflix Chaos Monkey resilience program A top to bottom explanation of how to calculate cyber risk for two different kinds of companies This book is perfect for cybersecurity professionals at all levels: business executives and senior security professionals, mid-level practitioner veterans, newbies coming out of school as well as career-changers seeking better career opportunities, teachers, and students.

Bulletproof Problem Solving

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Author : Charles Conn
Category : Business & Economics
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
Published : 2019-03-04
ISBN : 9781119553045
Type : PDF & EPUB
Page : 320
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Reviews book: Complex problem solving is the core skill for 21st Century Teams Complex problem solving is at the very top of the list of essential skills for career progression in the modern world. But how problem solving is taught in our schools, universities, businesses and organizations comes up short. In Bulletproof Problem Solving: The One Skill That Changes Everything you’ll learn the seven-step systematic approach to creative problem solving developed in top consulting firms that will work in any field or industry, turning you into a highly sought-after bulletproof problem solver who can tackle challenges that others balk at. The problem-solving technique outlined in this book is based on a highly visual, logic-tree method that can be applied to everything from everyday decisions to strategic issues in business to global social challenges. The authors, with decades of experience at McKinsey and Company, provide 30 detailed, real-world examples, so you can see exactly how the technique works in action. With this bulletproof approach to defining, unpacking, understanding, and ultimately solving problems, you’ll have a personal superpower for developing compelling solutions in your workplace. Discover the time-tested 7-step technique to problem solving that top consulting professionals employ Learn how a simple visual system can help you break down and understand the component parts of even the most complex problems Build team brainstorming techniques that fight cognitive bias, streamline workplanning, and speed solutions Know when and how to employ modern analytic tools and techniques from machine learning to game theory Learn how to structure and communicate your findings to convince audiences and compel action The secrets revealed in Bulletproof Problem Solving will transform the way you approach problems and take you to the next level of business and personal success.

Engaging Eager And Reluctant Learners

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Author : Dennis Adams
Category : Education
Publisher : Rowman & Littlefield
Published : 2017-03-08
ISBN : 9781475834475
Type : PDF & EPUB
Page : 172
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Reviews book: This book will help educators design STEM programs and lessons that foster teamwork and thinking while getting students actively involved in their own learning. There are many practical ideas and lesson plans that will help teachers reach both eager and reluctant learners. The suggestions for STEM curriculum and instruction are research based and standards driven. This book looks at collaborative learning, differentiation, and diversity all the while building instruction in the STEM subjects and good hands-on materials. This is done in a way that is designed to help every student feel successful and part of the class as a whole. It shows a deep respect for the unique relationship between teachers and their students as they try to navigate their way into the future. Suggestions are designed to help learners question, analyze, interpret, problem solve, and discover. The STEM subjects of science, technology, engineering, and math are essential to understanding the world of today and the world of tomorrow. The authors view is that it takes more than innovation alone; for innovation to be useful, products of the imagination must be arranged in ways that allow them to be used to solve real world problems.

Disaster Forensics

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Author : Anthony J. Masys
Category : Technology & Engineering
Publisher : Springer
Published : 2016-09-03
ISBN : 9783319418490
Type : PDF & EPUB
Page : 409
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Reviews book: This book aims to uncover the root causes of natural and man-made disasters by going beyond the typical reports and case studies conducted post-disaster. It opens the black box of disasters by presenting ‘forensic analysis approaches’ to disasters, thereby revealing the complex causality that characterizes them and explaining how and why hazards do, or do not, become disasters. This yields ‘systemic’ strategies for managing disasters. Recently the global threat landscape has seen the emergence of high impact, low probability events. Events like Hurricane Katrina, the Great Japan Earthquake and tsunami, Hurricane Sandy, Super Typhoon Haiyan, global terrorist activities have become the new norm. Extreme events challenge our understanding regarding the interdependencies and complexity of the disaster aetiology and are often referred to as Black Swans. Between 2002 and 2011, there were 4130 disasters recorded that resulted from natural hazards around the world. In these, 1,117,527 people perished and a minimum of US$1,195 billion in losses were reported. In the year 2011 alone, 302 disasters claimed 29,782 lives; affected 206 million people and inflicted damages worth a minimum of estimated US$366 billion.

Apocalypse Without God

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Author : Ben Jones
Category : Political Science
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
Published : 2022-04-21
ISBN : 9781316517055
Type : PDF & EPUB
Page : 241
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Reviews book: Explains why apocalyptic thought, despite often being dismissed as bizarre, has persistent appeal in political life.